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Sunday, March 16, 2014

MH370 Just a Theory


If we look from motive perspective:
1) Sulu Sultanate - 
Motive - exist since Lahad Datu episode
Claim responsibility - did not make claim
Capability to hijack - low possibility
Current findings of MH370 - deviated from route towards west whilst Sulu is on East.

2) Uiygur Chinese saparatist -
Motive - exist since most passengers are Chinese nationalities (include those claimed to be rich Chinese family)
Claim responsibility - claim responsible on 3rd day without explaining their modus operandi
Capability to hijack - played down by Chinese intelligent, Malaysian authority & Terrorist experts
Current finding of MH370
- Possible as the northern corridor would include Uighur disputed teritory; but
- India air traffic control & military assets informed that MH370 unlikely went through their air space as their military apparatus are all over the country.

3) Middle East terrorist
Motive
- no motive against Malaysia nor China
- motive against western interest is also unlikely as number of western passengers are minimal and the aircraft is unlikely to be able to reach any western counties.
Claim responsibility - did not make claim
Capability to hijack - capable

4) South Asians terrorist
Motive
- no motive against Malaysia nor China
- may have motive aganist US base in Afghanistan by Islamist militant but unlikely would implicate Malaysia a fellow Muslim country who are vocal against aggression in other muslim countries
Claim responsibility - did not make claim
Capability to hijack - capable
Current findings of MH370
- there are 10 US air base in Afghanistan within norther corridor
- the route may not be via India air space but via Arabian Sea (unlikely as this route will lose a lot of fuel to reach Afghanistan.

5) Mongolian saga
Motive
- none from any movement of organisation
- maybe from the wealthy family of Altantuya Sheribu who are still demanding Malaysian government to find the culprit who blown up Altantuya. The murder has been claimed by some quarters to be connected to existing PM Najib Razak which was then Minister of Defense.
Claim responsibility - did not make claim
Capability to hijack - not capable but the wealth of family may make them afford to hire terrorist group
Current findings of MH370 - Mongolia is outside both northern and southern corridors but it depends on which group the family hired (if any)
6) USA
Motive
- losing influence in Asia
- looking into intelligent of China, Vietnam, Indonesia & Malaysia in favor of possible enemy like The Philippine, Singapore and Australia.
- Admission by ex-CIA (Robert Baer) that similar operation were discussed when he was in CIA and agents have been trained to operate.

Claim responsibility - did not make claim and possibly will not make claim
Capability to hijack - very capable, including convenient to operate from the nearest military air base such as Diego Garcia at Indian Ocean.
Current findings of MH370
- the aircraft can possibly fly towards Diego Garcia base without detection by any other countries
KL is the nearest city to Diego Garcia US Base

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